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Prices have been moving sideways in recent weeks after hitting their highest in two years in late June. Earlier this year, many brokerages and commodity analysts had raised their forecasts for a sugar deficit, as production was seen to fall in Brazil, India and Thailand, which had powered a strong rally in sugar prices. But the rally recently stalled amid improving weather conditions in these countries. In mid-July, UNICA, Brazil's sugarcane producers' association, surprised the market by showing higher-than-expected sugar output in central-south Brazil, suggesting the country is heading to record output this season. But that outlook was questioned last week, as reports showed cash-stripped mills failed to keep up with veggiesensations.com both the quantity and quality of cane production. UNICA is expected to give an update of Brazilian cane crushing later this week. Despite the conflicting reports, some analysts say the factor of seasonality is now in favor of supplies. "We're reaching the time of year when the weather for the three biggest crops in the world--CS Brazil, India and EU--is now in the bag," wrote analysts at broker Marex Spectron. "Supply is exceeding demand, stocks are accumulating and the market...is likely to start asking: 'where is the deficit we built out position on?'" Many analysts say the sugar market is vulnerable to a correction, although it is still expected to be in deficit next year. There are some signs that some investors have exited their bullish bets on sugar. In the latest weekly report, the nonindex fund long position continued to erode, falling a total of 4% from the peak hit in late June.
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